Center for the Study of Complex Systems
Seminar Series
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
12:00 to 1:30 p.m.
411 West Hall
Jonathan Dushoff
Associate Professor, Dept. of Biology and Dept. of Mathematics & Statistics
McMaster University
Long-Term Relationships and Routes of HIV Transmission
The proportion of heterosexual HIV transmission that occurs within stable partnerships, as opposed to among single people, or in extra-couple relationships, is a subject of active debate, with strong relevance for planning public-health strategies. We use a hazard-based approach to try to disentangle routes of transmission in DHS survey data covering 27,000 couples in sub-Saharan Africa. We also examine the dynamic underpinnings of this question with a dynamic model. We conclude that all three routes are important, and that intervention strategies should therefore be targeted broadly.
The proportion of heterosexual HIV transmission that occurs within stable partnerships, as opposed to among single people, or in extra-couple relationships, is a subject of active debate, with strong relevance for planning public-health strategies. We use a hazard-based approach to try to disentangle routes of transmission in DHS survey data covering 27,000 couples in sub-Saharan Africa. We also examine the dynamic underpinnings of this question with a dynamic model. We conclude that all three routes are important, and that intervention strategies should therefore be targeted broadly.
